The increasing duration of life and its social implications are becoming more prominent as the world’s population is about to reach a landmark of huge social and economic importance. For the first time, the proportion of the global population over 65 will outnumber children under 5. A new report by the US Census Bureau shows a huge shift towards an ageing population (3), with enormous consequences for both rich and poor nations. The rate of growth will shoot up in the next couple of years. The change is due to (4) a combination of the high birth rates after the Second World War and more recent improvements in health that are bringing down death rates at older ages. Separate UN forecasts predict that the global population will be more than nine billion by 2050. The US Census Bureau was the first to sound the alarm about these changes (2). Its latest forecasts warn governments and international bodies that this change in population structure will bring widespread challenges at every level of human organization, starting with the structure of the family, which will be transformed as people live longer. This will in turn place new burdens on caregivers and social services providers, while patterns of work and retirement will have huge implications (5) for health services and pensions systems. “People are living longer and, in some parts of the world, healthier lives,” the authors conclude. “This represents one of the greatest achievements of the last century but also a significant challenge as proportions of older people increase in most countries (7).” Ageing will put pressure on societies at all levels. One way of measuring that is to look at the older dependency ratio, which shows the balance between working-age people and the older (6) that must be supported by them. The ODR is the number of people aged 65 and over for every 100 people aged 20 to 64. It varies widely, from just six in Kenya to 33 in Italy and Japan. The UK has an ODR of 26, and the US has 21.
The implications of this demographic shift are profound. Socially, the traditional family structure will be altered significantly, as extended families may become more common with multiple generations living together. This new family dynamic could place additional responsibilities on middle-aged individuals who may need to care for both their children and aging parents simultaneously.
Economically, the increasing number of elderly people will require a reevaluation of retirement age and pension systems. Governments might need to reconsider the age at which individuals become eligible for pensions, as well as the amount provided, to ensure that the systems remain sustainable. Health services will also face heightened demands, necessitating increased investment in healthcare infrastructure and services tailored to the elderly, including chronic disease management, geriatric care, and long-term care facilities.
Moreover, the workforce composition will change dramatically. With a larger proportion of older individuals, there may be a shortage of younger workers, which could lead to increased opportunities for older adults to stay in the workforce longer. This shift could require changes in workplace policies to accommodate older employees, such as flexible working hours, part-time opportunities, and roles that can be performed with varying physical capabilities.
At a global level, the disparity in the older dependency ratio between countries will become more pronounced. Countries with higher ratios, such as Japan and Italy, will need to develop innovative solutions to support their aging populations, while those with lower ratios, like Kenya, may face different challenges and opportunities related to their youthful demographics.
In summary, the increasing duration of life presents both opportunities and challenges that will reshape societies worldwide. Addressing these changes proactively through thoughtful policy-making, investment in healthcare and social services, and fostering intergenerational solidarity will be crucial for creating sustainable and inclusive communities for the future.
